Forecasting Changes in the Land Use of Al-Kut City, Iraq, Using Cellular Automaton and Markov Modeling Techniques

Abstract

Abstract:

There are many challenges facing KUT city, like many other urban areas around the world, due to rapid urbanization and the limited space available. The study area therefore needs intelligent land use planning to address these issues while conserving natural resources. The objectives of the study include the analysis of changes in land use in the KUT city from 2003 to 2023, the identification of influencing factors, forecasting future land uses by 2033.The research used various methods of data collection and analysis, highlighted the changes in land uses between 2003-2013 and 2013-2023 and the factors influencing these changes, the possible decline in green and agricultural areas by 2033.Using the results of the model of the(Land Change Modeler LCM) in idrisi environment, the(Transition Area Matrix)was also created for the distribution of urban land use, using the cellular automata represented by the Markov model to predict what will happen in the future and by 2033, using the Markov cellular model (CA-Markov).

 In connection with the results, significant urban expansions were observed around the city limits in the North and South-East Directions. Scattered urban growth was also predicted in the peripheral areas of the city and the study recommended the use of GIS software and modeling for urban land planning, advocating smart growth methods and preserving green, agricultural and natural areas for environmental and economic reasons.