Foresight of the development of the housing sector

Abstract

The housing sector in Iraq has suffered from multiple problems, the most prominent of which is the failure of the housing market to achieve housing production that faces population increases and a high number of households.

The research aims to foresight the future of the housing sector,  and to identify the expectations of experts in the development of the housing sector and housing production, in order to overcome the obstacles and problems.

Foresight does not mean forecasting about future events, but rather it is a process and skill aimed at familiarity with providing sufficient knowledge to achieve the desired future goals, Accordingly, adopting a method of future foresight will reduce error,  surprise and surprise in the paths of life, which is against chaos and randomness, Foresight is a set of activities, skills, and preparation for the future, and the development of strategic plans around challenges and the potential risks

The research included two axes: the first dealt with the concept of foresight, its methods, principles, and stages .As for the second axis, the analytical descriptive approach was used to explore the housing sector through the use of the Delphi method.

The most prominent results reached in this research according to the opinions of experts are the lack of a national vision for the housing sector and an action plan with clear goals and a specific timetable. In addition, that foresight helps in determining the obstacles and problems of the housing sector in the future, and that there is acceptance in the ability of the housing system to achieve resilience.

This included the government's ability to provide infrastructure for newly residential areas, increase the distribution of housing plots to citizens, reduce construction costs, and keep the number of loans, all of which are positive factors in increasing housing production.

The most prominent recommendations reached by the research are: the possibility of foreseeing the realization of the resilience housing system, by identifying the plans and economic markets associated with future housing production, and coordination and balance between them.